Cardinals Have Been Shoveling Snow For Some Time
According to team officials, the Cardinals hope to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado as part of its “retooling” plans. The team already parted ways with slugging first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
A winter storm swept across St. Louis on Sunday. News people called it the “first significant snow” of the winter.
Yes, well, the blanket of sleet and snow was the first significant visible accumulation. But it’s been snowing a lot here, ever since the baseball season ended.
Or should we say the environment has been “retooling?”
That’s the term the St. Louis Cardinals prefer to use, as well they might. The Cardinals are in the baseball business. It behooves them to use language friendly to the cause, counter-productive to do otherwise.
We’re not talking about blatant deception. No one at Busch Stadium is pulling the resin bag over your eyes. But there’s always more than one way to paint a picture. And from a marketing standpoint, it is prudent to paint in bright, vibrant colors, not foreboding tones.
Following a disappointing Summer of ’24, the Cardinals have decided to cut and run. The product was tired and uninviting. Promising developments from a season earlier defaulted. Established talents tanked. Starting pitching was ordinary and aging.
By season’s end, the goose no longer was laying golden eggs, just eggs. “Cardinal Nation” resembled a disorganized band of colonials and the ballpark had more empties than a Kansas City Chiefs tailgate.
So ownership has decided to bring the ship around, re-evaluate the winds and set a new course. OK, makes sense. When you’re in a hole, the last thing you want to do is keep digging.
This corner is not one to throw money at the problem, to push the free-agent route. That’s a tail-chase only the deepest pockets can conducte, a discussion for another time.
The point here is this: How the Cardinals label their approach this winter is one thing. How that message is received, processed and advanced by writers, commentators and analysts is another.
On what planet are you “retooling” when your third-place hitter is allowed to leave on his own volition? In what universe are you making minor changes when you commit to trading your cleanup hitter, come hell or high draft picks? In fact, you're so committed to it, you publicly announce your intentions, further eroding your leverage.
Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have been fixtures in the lineup for the past four years. During that time, they have produced 28 percent of the home runs and 26 percent of the RBIs. This isn’t a software issue, this is changing the hard drive.
Not unreasonable. Perennial All-Stars, Goldschmidt and Arenado followed modestly discouraging seasons (2023) with wholly disappointing 2024s. Both are advancing in age and, seemingly, retreating in performance. If those large salaries might be better invested elsewhere, if it’s time to move on, ok.
But let’s characterize it for what it is. When you divert funds from established players to player development, you're betting on the come, you’re not simply reaching for a different screwdriver. When you gut the epicenter of your offense and replace your cornerstones, it’s something more comprehensive, something like a renovation or, dare we say, a rebuild.
This is particularly true when replacing your highly decorated first baseman involves Wilson Contreras. The newly ordained first baseman signed two years ago to be the starting catcher. He turns 33 in the spring and in 826 MLB games, he has guarded first base 11 times. He was not a defensive replacement on those occasions.
Injuries have limited Contreras to 209 games over two St. Louis seasons, during which he has averaged .263, 18 home runs and 52 RBIs. Goldschmidt’s 22 homers and 65 RBIs last summer were disappointing enough to show him the door and wish him well.
And when Nolan Gorman is your plan to replace the highly-decorated Arenado, seems like more than a minor tweak. Gorman had 19 home runs last season, but batted .203 to get them. He struck out in 151 of 365 at-bats, or 41 percent of the time, and had a .271 on-base percentage. In 23 games at Class AAA Memphis, he improved to .205 with 23 Ks in 88 at-bats.
Perhaps it's worth noting that In 1945, Pete Gray played 77 games for the St. Louis Browns and batted .217. Gray only had one arm.
Again, this is not meant to slight these players. The organization has not experienced postseason play for two years, and has one playoff game “W” to show for the past nine seasons. It's not working.
So why not see if Contreras can handle first base? Perhaps he’ll stay healthy, perhaps he’ll stay in the lineup. Perhaps the Cardinals will get a decent return on the $18 million-per it owes him for three more seasons.
Why wouldn’t you give Gorman a shot at third? He has big-bat potential, evidenced by his 27 homers in 2023. And you have Brandon Donovan available to play second. Make sense.
But neither Contreras or Gorman is certified in their projected roles. This is not “retooling,” this is shooting craps.
The same might be said elsewhere in the prospectus. Jordan Walker has been identified as a right-field option. Exciting in 2023, Walker flatlined last season. In the opening 20 games, he batted .155 with no home runs. In UFC competition, 155 is classified as “lightweight.” In baseball, it’s paperweight.
Walker went to Memphis, where he didn’t tear it up either. He was brought back late and showed a faint pulse, batting .253 with five home runs in 25 games. Walker turns 23 in May and he still represents dynamic potential. By all means, let’s see if last summer was an aberration.
If Walker doesn’t rebound, if Contreras gets hurt or struggles, the alternative is Alex Burleson. Overall, Burleson's stats seem reassuring. But he batted .202 without a homer through September/October. And for the season, he was a sobering .196 against left-handed pitching.
We could go on.
As things stand, center field belongs to Mike Siani and Victor Scott II. Siani is a terrific defender … who batted .228 with two homers and a .285 OBP last season. Scott hit .179 in 145 big league at-bats, barely edging Sandy Koufax’ .177 pace in 1965. A Hall of Fame pitcher, Koufax was widely recognized as one of the worst hitting pitchers on earth.
Scott was marginally better at Memphis, batting .210 in 314 at-bats. But his OBPs were .219 and .294 respectively. Siani and Scott have base-stealing speed, but there’s this weird rule in baseball where you can’t steal first base. Darn the luck, eh?
And we can go on.
During three injury-stunted seasons, Lars Nootbar has averaged 111 games, .249, 13 homers and 44 RBIs. With those credits, he should be considered the most entrenched Cardinals outfielder. Perhaps it is worth noting that at age 42, Stan Musial batted .255 with 12 homers and 58 RBIs … then retired. Just sayin.’
And we could keep going on.
We haven’t even mentioned the all important starting pitching. As of now, the rotation includes Miles Mikolas, 10-11 with a 5.35 ERA last season, a yielder of 209 earned runs over the last two seasons. To his credit, Mikolas will take the ball, and has 67 starts over the past two seasons. And, unfortunately, the Cardinals plan to give it to him.
Another projected staff member is Steven Matz, who was 1-2 with a 5.08 ERA in ’24 and has started just 34 games over three injury-filled seasons in St. Louis.
If you feel like Ebenezer Scrooge, bending over his tombstone, desperately asking the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come if these course of events might be altered by the future, it’s appropriate.
The trade of Arenado could modify the picture slightly. The weeks ahead could bring incremental moves to strengthen the Cardinals’ hand, a bit. Remember, these comments notwithstanding, this is not a “tear down,” a “blow up” or a “total rebuild.”
Still, it makes you wonder, as Juan Soto nabs a 15-year, $765 million contract. Back in the winter of 2005-06, the Blues were in a similar mode, reducing payroll, changing directions. In short order, they traded their three top players - Chris Pronger, Doug Weight and Mike Sillinger. The next thing you knew, the team was sold.
Just sayin.’
Of course, you need not worry about that. After all, this is just a “retool.”